HELIX is an EU-funded collaborative research project assessing the potential impacts of climate change. Scientists from 16 organisations worldwide have worked together to develop a number of future scenarios of the natural and human world as a consequence of 1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C and 6°C global warming.
Almost every year, Bangladesh experiences disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion or floods. Tropical cyclones originate from the North Indian Ocean and often cause devastating flood inundations in Bangladesh. The densely populated coastal region of Bangladesh is likely to become more vulnerable in the future due to SLR. Disaster risks can be reduced if storm surges can be predicted well ahead. To assess the possible changes of inundation in the future, a Delft3D model has been developed for the storm surge of three devastating cyclones, namely, Sidr, Aila and Roanu in the southern coast of Bangladesh. Three possible SLR boundary conditions are chosen from the business-as-usual climate scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5 with values of 0.5 m (lower limit), 1 m (upper limit) and 1.5 m (extreme case, considering the subsidence and a rapid collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet). It is found that a category 4 cyclone such as cyclone Sidr would inundate 2.6%, 3.67% and 5.84% of the area of the country if the SLR is 0.5, 1 and 1.5 m, which will affect the livelihood of nearly 4.1, 7.0 and 9.1 million people of Bangladesh, respectively. It will also inundate up to 21.0%, 42.1% and 65.1% of the Sundarbans mangrove forest, which will undoubtedly affect the ecology of this unique ecosystem.
